Title: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way Pdf Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks
Author: Will Kurt
Published Date: 2019
Page: 256
Will Kurt currently works as a Senior Data Scientist at Bombora, and has been using Bayesian statistics to solve real business problems for over half a decade. He frequently blogs about probability on his website, CountBayesie.com. Will is the author of Get Programming with Haskell (Manning Publications) and lives in Reno, Nevada.
Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.
This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.
By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:
- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them
Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Fun Excellent! Stats can be fun! Awesome nerd references throughout!Oxymoron or can Bayesian stats really be fun? The title of this book may sound oxymoronic. To many, probability and statistics are not on their radar for fun. Mathematicians, engineers, data researches and the like don’t need to be convinced. But as the author explains, everyday life is full of uncertainty. So marketers, salespeople, decision makers – just about everyone – can benefit from thinking about problems in a Bayesian way.The book starts with a simple introduction to probability and the connection between Bayesian thinking and everyday reasoning. The author uses an example of seeing a bright light in the night sky and reasoning whether it is a UFO. He leads you through the process of recognizing your existing experience/knowledge, observing data, creating hypotheses and repeating. He stresses that data should inform beliefs as opposed to your beliefs informing data.This leads pretty quickly to some more advanced tools using logic such as true or false values between 0 and 1 and adding AND, NOT and OR from classical logic. The examples are from the real world such as how to act when you are stopped for speeding. Complicated topics such as Binomial and Beta distributions are explained using the popular Japanese Gacha Games.Part II introduces conditional probability as opposed to the earlier independent probability using a flu shot example. The real fun comes with using Legos to visualize the space of possible events. It gets better. He then uses an example from Star Wars involving C-3PO and Hans Solo. It keeps the advanced math and logic engaging.Part III introduces Parameter Estimation whether it is counting jelly beans in a jar at a county fair or estimating snowfall. Normal Distributions are described with the scenario of a cartoon villain setting off a bomb in a bank vault.Part IV deals with a hypothesis test, an A/B test. It uses the example of testing whether an image in email helps or hurts the conversion rate. The Bayesian Reasoning section uses a classic Twilight Zone episode. That is followed by an example of selecting rubber ducks at a carnival.Let me be clear that this is not a frivolous book. All the math and logic is here and well presented. It’s just that a lot of fun scenarios are used to present the ideas. Each chapter has exercises to try and the answers are online.Will Kurt does it again. Just getting started. Love it already!
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